S&P 500

Everything Bubble could be the case..!

1192
How possible is another Bullish rally???

To answer this question let's review some important fundamentals.
In the next few paragraphs, I will use a great article about Bubble by Investopedia and provide a real-life example and let you judge at the end.
Since everyone could have misconceptions about certain issues, please feel free to write your contradicting views and help me learn from your ideas.
What Is a Bubble?
A basic characteristic of financial bubbles is the suspension of disbelief by most participants when the speculative price surge is occurring.
( My view: Almost everyone thinks there will be another Bullish rally soon. Check box number 1: filled)

Bubble, in an economic context, generally refers to a situation where the price for something—an individual stock, a financial asset, or even an entire sector, market, or asset class—exceeds its fundamental value by a large margin.

Financial bubbles, aka asset bubbles or economic bubbles, fit into four basic categories:
stock market bubbles
market bubbles
credit bubbles
commodity bubbles
Let's evaluate them one by one!
A: Stock market Bubble: I would to like use Buffet Indicator, The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. The Buffett Indicator was at elevated levels before the dotcom crash of 2000 to 2002, and before the financial crisis of 2008, but at respective values of 137% and 105%, lower than today's reading of 158%. (check box 2 filled)
Sector Bubble: Some sectors like EV makers, green energy stocks, AI, Aerospace, and cryptocurrency-related stocks have been in a deflationary state since 3 months ago. (check box 3 filled)

B: Market Bubble: Cryptocurrency market :
After a +2300% gain in less than 14 months just lost 50% of its market cap in less than 2 weeks! (check box 4 filled)

C: Credit Bubble:
Margin debt stands at $847 billion highest number in the last 10 years..!(check box 5 filled)
US Published National Debt:+ 28 Trillion (+133 Trillion is an alternative reality which means 855k/Taxpayer) (check box 6 filled)

D: Commodity Bubble:
Agricultural futures: everything is up between 10-303% in the past year. (check box 7 filled)
Energy futures: everything is up between 53-111% in the past year. (check box 8 filled)
Metals futures: everything is up between 9-92% in the past year. (check box 9 filled)

The five steps in the lifecycle of a bubble:
1- Displacement
2- Boom (March 2020- February 2021)
3- Euphoria (February-April 2021)
4- Profit-taking (April- May 2021) 76% of stocks trading below their relative volume which means no new money coming to the market. (check box 10 filled)
5- Panic (Not started yet)

Another concerning factor is the sharp drop that happened after earnings in most stocks!
No need to say Gold started a new rally and seems it has no intention to correct in the past 2 months.

Most importantly, I believe I have discovered a mathematical way to calculate the last stage of any bubble with acceptable accuracy..!
Those who follow my work know it is not a baseless claim. I will provide some example:
1- EV makers Bubble: NIO was 57
Market front runner industry (EV makers)seems exhausted ..!


2- Bitcoin: was 64-62
Alarming signs in Bitcoin


Based on my calculation: It is highly likely that we experience another round of sell-off by the next 4 weeks or sooner!

I provide atleast 10 reasons for my bearish case, I would like to know what are your reasons for another Bullish rally?

Cryptocurrency Market:
istantanea
Margin Statistic:

U.S. Published National Debt:
https://www.truthinaccounting.org/about/our_national_debt?gclid=Cj0KCQjwna2FBhDPARIsACAEc_UhPkSoIEgwBEc3HfLIvETKDtfbqD0fHzetOStQNmd_HGGQK1-OEbMaAsWNEALw_wcB

Bubble:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/10/5-steps-of-a-bubble.asp

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