SPY has been in a bull run since March 14th, with a (so far) retracement beginning the end of March. As of last week, SPY finished in quite the gray area - with many signs of uncertainty in both buyers and sellers.
First, it finished above both its 50 ema (445.50) and above its ATH aVWAP (442.50) - using the 50 ema as strong support and barely touching its aVWAP. These are both signs that the bulls haven't given up yet, despite having dropped 4% in the past two weeks.
The RSI is also an indication of bullish struggle, with the RSI 50 being a point of heavy support and resistance in the past, the RSI currently sits at 51 - meaning SPY could potentially use this as a point of support.
As for the bears, the 9ema acted as a point of strong resistance for SPY this past week, even stronger than the 50ema's support - a bearish signal.
We also see a steady decline in Volume, so expect some inflection point and move happening sometime towards the end of middle/ end of April.
As for my personal opinion, I feel SPY is headed lower short term after a period of consolidation. Overall economy sentiment is negative for good reason, and there is still much uncertainty for the war in Ukraine.
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