🔮 Weekly 
SPY / 
SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
Jackson Hole aftermath 🏔️
Powell’s Friday keynote sets the tone. Markets will trade on whether he opened the door to a September cut or stuck to a cautious stance. Expect chop inSPY, 
TLT, 
DXY as traders recalibrate.
Inflation & Jobs 🔥💼
Fresh PCE inflation and jobless claims anchor the week. Any upside surprise revives “higher-for-longer”; softness = fuel for cut odds.
Retail earnings wrap 🛒
With $WMT/$TGT/
HD behind us, discounters and specialty retailers close the season. XRT stays a barometer of consumer resilience.
Housing & confidence 🏠📉
Pending Home Sales + Conference Board Confidence will test sentiment in an affordability squeeze backdrop. WatchXHB, $XLY.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
📅 Monday, Aug 25
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 AM) – broad growth pulse.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM) – regional check.
📅 Tuesday, Aug 26
Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM) – capex signal; core ex-transport key.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:00 AM) – factory health in Mid-Atlantic.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM) – housing momentum.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM) – labor intentions, rate sentiment.
📅 Wednesday, Aug 27
MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 AM) – weekly mortgage pulse.
Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM) – trade, inventories, wholesale.
Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM) – affordability and turnover test.
Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM) – $CL_F/
XLE driver.
📅 Thursday, Aug 28
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – labor cooling watch.
GDP (2nd Estimate, Q2) (8:30 AM) – growth momentum, revisions matter.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11:00 AM) – regional survey.
📅 Friday, Aug 29
PCE Price Index (Jul, 8:30 AM) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Personal Income & Outlays (8:30 AM) – consumer demand and savings rates.
Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) – manufacturing signal ahead of ISM next week.
UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, 10:00 AM) – inflation expectations track.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #SPY #SPX #Fed #PCE #GDP #Housing #Confidence #Energy #Bonds #Dollar
SPY / SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025 🔮🌍 Market-Moving Themes
Jackson Hole aftermath 🏔️
Powell’s Friday keynote sets the tone. Markets will trade on whether he opened the door to a September cut or stuck to a cautious stance. Expect chop in
SPY, TLT, DXY as traders recalibrate.Inflation & Jobs 🔥💼
Fresh PCE inflation and jobless claims anchor the week. Any upside surprise revives “higher-for-longer”; softness = fuel for cut odds.
Retail earnings wrap 🛒
With $WMT/$TGT/
HD behind us, discounters and specialty retailers close the season. XRT stays a barometer of consumer resilience.Housing & confidence 🏠📉
Pending Home Sales + Conference Board Confidence will test sentiment in an affordability squeeze backdrop. Watch
XHB, $XLY.📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
📅 Monday, Aug 25
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 AM) – broad growth pulse.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM) – regional check.
📅 Tuesday, Aug 26
Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM) – capex signal; core ex-transport key.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:00 AM) – factory health in Mid-Atlantic.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM) – housing momentum.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM) – labor intentions, rate sentiment.
📅 Wednesday, Aug 27
MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 AM) – weekly mortgage pulse.
Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM) – trade, inventories, wholesale.
Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM) – affordability and turnover test.
Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM) – $CL_F/
XLE driver.📅 Thursday, Aug 28
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – labor cooling watch.
GDP (2nd Estimate, Q2) (8:30 AM) – growth momentum, revisions matter.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11:00 AM) – regional survey.
📅 Friday, Aug 29
PCE Price Index (Jul, 8:30 AM) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Personal Income & Outlays (8:30 AM) – consumer demand and savings rates.
Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) – manufacturing signal ahead of ISM next week.
UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, 10:00 AM) – inflation expectations track.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #SPY #SPX #Fed #PCE #GDP #Housing #Confidence #Energy #Bonds #Dollar
Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.